- In 2020, President Biden won Nevada by bringing together a broad Democratic coalition.
- But he faces tough headwinds this year, as the state's economy has lagged relative to the country.
- Polls show Trump with an edge on the economy, a dynamic Biden will have to change to win reelection.
For over fifteen years, Nevada has been a major success story for the Democratic Party.
The late Sen. Harry Reid was instrumental in building up the state party, which led to high-profile victories like Barack Obama's presidential victories in 2008 and 2012, Catherine Cortez Masto's Senate win in 2016, and President Joe Biden's win in 2020.
After years of GOP dominance in Nevada, it seemed as though Democrats had finally cracked the code for consistent victories, with a coalition of young voters, union members, Black and Latino voters, and suburbanites fueling their political ascent in the state.
But ahead of November, Biden is currently the underdog in Nevada, weighed down by the state's slow economic recovery during the coronavirus pandemic. And how he shapes his economic message to voters across the state could very well determine whether or not he wins reelection.
Nevada's outsized importance
Nevada only has six electoral votes, but the race between Biden and former President Donald Trump could come down to a few thousand — or even a few hundred votes — in key battleground states across the country.
The last GOP presidential nominee to win Nevada was George W. Bush in November 2004 — nearly 20 years ago.
During that timespan, Nevada saw a population spike — largely centered in the Las Vegas and Reno areas — with a state population of 2.4 million residents in 2005 increasing to nearly 3.2 million residents last year.
Nevada was deeply impacted by the Great Recession, as the housing downturn depressed home prices and led to high unemployment in various sectors — namely construction, finance, and real estate.
And then the pandemic in 2020 shuttered the Las Vegas Strip for weeks, an unprecedented blow to leisure travel and the hospitality industry overall. With another significant economic calamity affecting Nevada, the ramifications were bound to collide with Biden's economic pitch to voters.
Biden's dilemma
In 2020, Biden won Nevada by a 50% to 48% margin over his GOP rival, similar to the 2.4-point edge that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton enjoyed over Trump (47.9% to 45.5%) in 2016.
But both results were a steep departure from Obama's robust 12.5- and nearly 7-point wins in 2008 and 2012.
Biden will have to work hard to address some of the top concerns of Nevada voters: inflation, housing affordability, and health care.
And the president has his work cut out for him, as Trump is leading him in Nevada by a sizable margin in recent polling.
A New York Times/Siena College survey conducted from late April through early May showed Trump ahead Biden by a 12-point margin (50% to 38%) among registered voters in Nevada. When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are in the mix, Biden's support plummets to 27%, with Trump taking 41% and Kennedy Jr. at 12%, followed by Stein with 2% support.
A plurality of Nevada voters (22%) listed the economy as their top issue, and a whopping 82% of voters said that the economy was "only fair" or "poor." Only 17% of Nevada voters rated the economy as "good" or "excellent." And by a 61% to 32% margin, Nevada voters believe Trump would be better at handling the economy.
The Biden campaign has responded aggressively to tackle this narrative.
The president visited Nevada in March to make his pitch for boosting affordable housing. The month before, he met with culinary workers — a highly influential voting bloc — while in Las Vegas. And Vice President Kamala Harris has traveled to Nevada four times this year, promoting the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act and advocating for reproductive rights in an election where abortion will be a key issue.
Another matter for Biden: The bipartisan infrastructure law is a huge accomplishment for his administration. Yet it will take years for many voters to see the results, including the creation of jobs.
Biden's biggest challenge is sharpening an economic message that voters will respond to across the country. And Nevada is increasingly looking like the place where he'll need to do it to stay in the White House.